new survey shows current business optimism with long term fears

The economy is expected to grow at the healthy rate of around 2.6 percent for the rest of the year, according to a survey just published by the National Association of Business Economics.

That percentage, arrived at by fifty-three economic forecasters, is a little down from the 2.8 percent rate recorded in 2018.

But that 2.6 percent will be higher, those same experts believe, than a predicted 2.1 percent for most of 2020.

The economists said their biggest current overall concerns are almost entirely related to tariffs and trade policies, with more than half of the respondents saying that they think such issues are ultimately going to have a downer impact on the economy going into 2020.

In a statement, Gregory Daco, chairman of the survey, said “Increased trade protectionism is considered the primary downside risk to growth by a majority of respondents, followed by financial market strains and a global growth slowdown.”

As it now stands, says the survey, only 15 percent of respondents expect to see anything close to a recession by the end of this year. But that number jumps to 60 percent as the economists attempt to predict trends up to the final quarter of 2020.

The survey respondents additionally forecast that the Gross Domestic Product will decrease to 2.4 percent this year from the 3.0 percent recorded last year, on the way to 2.0 percent in 2020.

Based in Washington, the National Association for Business Economics is the largest association of economists, academics, and policymakers in the world.

By Garry Boulard

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