February 05th, 2021

Despite the lingering negative impact of the Covid-19 pandemic, the national economy is expected to expand this year by a healthy nearly 4%.

In a report issued by the Congressional Budget Office, the growth rate for the Gross Domestic Product is not only expected to hit the 3.7% mark by the end of this year, but to follow that performance with an equally strong 2022.

The upward numbers, says the CBO, are expected to first make themselves known as early as this coming summer.

Ironically, some of that growth will be due in part to the pandemic, or rather the Congressional response to it. Passage of the $900 billion relief bill at the end of last year is expected to accelerate spending this year, increasing the Gross Domestic Product in the coming months by around 1.5%.

Equally optimistic, the CBO is also anticipating that the jobless rate by the end of this year will be down to 3.2%, a dramatic decrease from the 14.7% recorded last spring.

The good numbers, says the CBO, are particularly related to an expected national embrace of the vaccine designed to stop Covid-19’s spread.

Because of Covid-19’s imminent decline, the Gross Domestic Product is “expected to return to its pre-pandemic level in mid-2021 and to surpass its potential (that is, its maximum sustainable) level in early 2025,” continues the report.

All of this means that the Gross Domestic Product is going to expand rapidly in 2021, says the CBO, with the unemployment rate gradually declining and returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2024.
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Taking a much longer view, the CBO is also projecting consistent national economic growth for the years 2026 to 2031.

​By Garry Boulard

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