The confidence level of chief executive officers has decreased in anticipating a possible coming recession, says a new industry survey. Published by the Conference Board, which has offices in New York, as well as in Europe and Asia, the Measure of CEO Confidence survey shows a decline of two whole points from the group’s summer survey. That drop, according to a press release issued by the Conference Board, reveals a lack of confidence not seen since 2009 during the depths of the Great Recession. Questioning nearly 140 chief executive offices from around the country, the survey showed a massive 98% anticipating a recession sometime between now and early 2024. In a statement, Dana Peterson, chief economist with Conference Board, noted that only 5% of respondents said that "business conditions were better today than they were six months ago.” That same low percentage applied to those who said they expected conditions to improve by next spring. But, continued Peterson, despite expectations of slower growth, tight labor market conditions and wage pressures, “hiring plans remained robust.” An equally bullish figure was seen in the number of chief executive officers, at 86%, who said they expect to either increase their capital budgets or keep them at current levels. Feelings regarding exactly what kind of recession the country may be facing remained decidedly mixed among the chief executive officers. Most respondents said they thought the U.S. recession would be “short and shallow.” But at the same time upwards of 70% thought it was likely that Europe will see a “deep recession with serious global spillovers.” The confidence index for the chief executive officers was mostly on the upside and above 50 between the end of the Great Recession and the early 2021 onset of Covid-19. The numbers swiftly dropped to the upper 30s during the spring months of 2021, only to jump back up again, when the nation was experiencing a post-pandemic economic boom in late 2021 and early this year. By Garry Boulard
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